Betting Preview: Weekend 4-5 May

With Legia Warszawa’s goalless draw at Piast Gliwice denying Ryan Hubbard a treble in Round 24, the EKSTRAKLASAreview editor is back with a weekend treble from the Ekstraklasa and Pierwsza Liga.

GKS Bełchatów – Górnik Zabrze, Saturday 4 May 14:45 UK (15:45 local)

Last week’s Wielkie Derby Śląska victory against Ruch Chorzów may have moved Gornik Zabrze up to third place, but their next opponents GKS Belchatów won’t necessarily conform to the league table and roll over for the Trójkolorowi. With five draws and two wins from their nine Spring Round games, GKS’s total of 11 points is two higher than the nine which Gornik have picked up since winter.

However we aren’t looking at who is going to win in this game. Whilst Górnik have managed to hit eight goals in the last nine (less than one per game), it is still four more than Belchatów. And with just twelve between them, everything is pointing towards a low-scoring affair.

Just one of Belchatów’s nine games in 2013 have gone over 2.5 goals, whilst less than half of Górnik’s games have managed the feat. With the home side having no real recognised goalscorer, and some questions still hanging over the Górnik front line, the stats suggest that this one will finish Under 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.65 with Bwin.

Śląsk Wrocław – Pogoń Szczecin, Sunday 5 May 16:00 UK (17:00 local)

With just three days to prepare after their Polish Cup Final first leg defeat against Legia, Śląsk Wrocław will be hoping to move away from the form which saw them hammered 4-0 by local rivals Zagłębie Lubin in their last Ekstraklasa outing. And with entry to Europe as cup winners looking in doubt, they will be relying either on a top-four finish, or their cup final rivals winning the league. But with Lech Poznań slowly closing the gap on Legia, Stanislav Levy’s men will not want to leave anything to chance.

Their Matchday 25 opponents Pogoń Szczecin picked up their first victory since December 1st last weekend, with a 2-1 victory over Korona Kielce, but with only two away wins all season, the odds are stacked against them in Lower Silesia.

Only two sides (Legia and Korona) have won more games at home than Śląsk (7), whilst just two teams (GKS and again Korona) have won fewer on the road than Pogoń (2). With the visitors dropping like a lead balloon in Spring, it is difficult to back them going into any game at the moment.

SportingBet are offering odds of 1.85 for Śląsk to beat Pogoń.

Warta Poznań – Zawisza Bydgoszcz, Sunday 5 May 11:30 UK (12:30 local)

After three successive defeats in April saw Zawisza’s promotion challenge hit the rocks, the club’s board lost faith in Ukrainian boss Yuriy Shatalov. His replacement Ryszard Tarasiewicz was brought in to steady the ship; and in his first outing, a return to the form which made them so feared at the start of the season brought a 4-1 away victory over Okocimski Brzesko. Now with four points to make up on second-placed Cracovia, the Blue-Blacks from Bydgoszcz need to keep their run going if they want to stand a chance of returning to the Ekstraklasa.

On Sunday, they travel to Wielkopolska to face a Warta Poznań side who have picked up just one point in their seven spring outings. The only reason that they now occupy a place outside of the relegation spots is the obligatory 3-0 walkover for their clash with bankrupt ŁKS.

With just two goals scored and ten conceded since their mass exodus in winter, Warta now face both the best attack and the second best defence in the Pierwsza Liga. Form suggests a massive scoreline, but the hosts will be lucky to hit the net just once.

Zawisza to win can be picked up at 1.67 with Coral, William Hill and Paddy Power.

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